Harris And Trump In Close Contest For Presidency
The *Race to the WH* Presidential Forecast has released its latest predictions on the 2024 U.S. presidential election, analyzing polling data, historical voting patterns, and national economic trends from the past two years. The forecast, which simulates the Electoral College 50,000 times, estimates the likelihood of either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump winning the presidency.
As of now, the model gives Kamala Harris a 57.1% chance of winning, while Donald Trump holds a 42.7% chance. The projections show Harris receiving 284.2 Electoral College votes, compared to Trump’s 253.8. In the congressional races, Democrats are predicted to win 247 seats, while Republicans are projected to claim 219.
This forecasting model, launched in 2020, has a proven track record for accuracy, particularly in the 2022 midterm elections where it missed the GOP House seat total by just one. An independent review also confirmed that it provided the most accurate probabilities in House and Senate races among major forecasters.
Kamala Harris, currently the U.S. Vice President and the first woman of Black and Asian descent to hold the office, is running to succeed President Biden, who has endorsed her. Her campaign has seen a resurgence, closing polling gaps in key swing states, and reversing gains Trump made earlier in the race.
Meanwhile, Trump recently faced an assassination scare. On September 15, during a golf outing in Florida, a Secret Service agent thwarted what the FBI described as an assassination attempt. The gunman, Ryan Routh, was spotted aiming a rifle but fled after the agent opened fire. Trump was unharmed, but the incident marks the second attempt on his life in two months. Trump blamed the attack on the “provocative rhetoric” of Biden and Harris, while Democrats condemned the violence, underscoring the increasingly volatile political climate just weeks before the election.
